The economic activity of the countries of the Economic and Monetary Community of Central Africa (CEMAC), would be more dynamic in 2019, thanks in particular to the strength of the oil and non-oil sector.
These forecasts are made by the Bank of Central African States (BEAC) in its recent Economic Note. According to her, the economic growth of the sub-region would rise to 3.2% in 2019, against 1.7% in 2018. And this, despite the existence of vulnerabilities affecting the subregion both in terms of security and macroeconomic .
The essential oil sector
The significant increase in the activities of the oil sector will be decisive for the economies of the subregion. Indeed, growth in the oil sector is expected to increase to 3.4% in 2019 from 2.3% in 2018.
The non-oil sector
This business sector should grow by 3.2% in 2019 compared to 1.6% in 2018. In terms of contributions, it would be the main driver of growth in Cemac in 2019. This, with an estimated participation of +2 , 5 points (against +1.2 point a year earlier), while that of the oil sector will continue to increase to +0.7 point, against +0.5 point in 2018, thanks in particular to the increase in production expected in Congo and Chad.
According to BEAC, all Cemac countries are enjoying positive economic growth
The prediction of the end of the recession in Equatorial Guinea is the most marked evolution. Indeed, growth, estimated at -4.1% in 2018, should reach 0.8% in 2019, driven by a resurgence of extractive industries, construction, and financial and real estate services. In addition, growth in Chad is expected to increase significantly, from 2.4% to nearly 6%, in line with a sharp rise in the oil sector.
On the demand side, economic growth in 2019 is mainly driven by domestic demand, with a contribution of 3.3 points, driven by both the rebound in public consumption (+0.7 points) and private consumption (+ 0.7 point), and by a significant contribution of gross investments (+1.8 points). The momentum for private investment should come from the petroleum component (+0.8 points, compared to +0.1 point in 2018).
Keywords : Africa, News, Economy, CEMAC, BEAC, Oil sector
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